A Homer Preview: Giants vs. 49ers

In a trigger happy league, and even more so conference, the NFC championship comes down to two teams more famous for their defenses and running attacks in recent years.  So who will be the victor come Sunday? Well let me break it down as to why and how the Giants will win.

For years, the 49ers have been led by the previously bust candidate, 1^st overall pick Alex Smith. Until this season he had been a small handed mostly average quarterback, able to make excuses for his play because of a the extreme number of offensive minded head coaches, offensive coordinators, and quarterbacks coaches the 49ers ran through in Smith’s early seasons.  During that time the team instead found success running the ball behind powerful, but annually injured, Frank Gore; a fantasy stud that could not lead the 49ers to deep into the post season if at all.  This season everything came together under 1^st year coach Jim Harbaugh despite a lockout that negated all of the off-season workouts and threatened the preseason as well.

Playing against San Francisco will be my hometown Giants.  Two years without a trip to the playoffs, especially when you consider the amount of talent the team had, led to a do or die year for Tom Coughlin and Big Blue.  The Giants were on paper scheduled to finish behind the Dream Team Eagles and the offensively strong Cowboys, but at least we weren’t the Redskins.  It only got worse in preseason as we lost plat only got worse in preseason as we lost defensive starters to season ending injuries leaving the team down to two good cornerbacks and requiring the 3 safety packages which had occurred the year before.  In almost every game this year, the Giants appeared to be a dropped pass or misfire from losses, but in the end appeared to simply play down to the level of their weaker opponents (Redskins, Seahawks) and up to the level of the stronger ones (Patriots, Green Bay).

Thus, when the dust settled after the divisional round last weekend, almost every analyst had been proven wrong.  The Giants defeated Green Bay handily, and the 49ers did almost the unthinkable, upsetting New Orleans in a shootout 4^th quarter.  We are left with two teams known more for their defenses than their quarterbacks.

Offensively, the Giants have overall superior talent in playmakers.  At quarterback there is no question Eli is the superior play caller to Alex Smith, and has put up his best season yet, throwing for almost 5K yards and carrying the team through many stretches this season.  He is still prone to throwing the errant interception or ridiculous underhand or left-handed pass, but he has become an elite quarterback nonetheless.  In comparison, Smith has thrived in an offense that has reportedly been dumbed down a bit to make play calls and reads easier, and has been extremely efficient as a result, not turning the ball over, but not necessarily making big plays either. As a result I’d guess that if the Giants could take a two touchdown lead anytime in the contest, they could hold on against any rally Smith tried to mount.  

The receivers for Big Blue are similarly ahead of the 49ers in talent and big play ability.  Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, and Mario Manningham are all #1 or #2 receivers on any other team in the league and it should be difficult to contain all three on any given play.  The 49ers edge is at the TE position where they have Pro Bowl talent Vernon Davis compared to the serviceable Jake Ballard of the Giants.  Davis’ ability and heart (he was crying after he caught the winning TD last weekend, I’m considering that heart) don’t negate the absurd abilities of the 3 headed monster receiving corps of the Giants so I’m calling advantage NYG.

At running back/offensive line, I give the edge slightly to the 49ers.  They’ve had a decent to good running game all year, but in the earlier contest between the Giants and 49ers, the Giants were able to knock injury prone Frank Gore out of the contest and negate their gameplan almost entirely.  That may not happen again this week, but it’s certainly within the realm of possibility.  The Giants running attack has been abysmal as the line does not open holes the Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs to run through, but they have so much talent between the two, that they may have some luck and force their existence to be respected by the defense.  It’s almost a wash, but the Giants have been so utterly disappointing to me as a fan compared to previous years, I’m giving this one to the 49ers.

Defensively, the 49ers have the advantage.  They start two pro bowlers at linebacker while the Giants, due to injuries, now start Michael Boley, some rookies, and also-ran Chase Blackburn.  Linebacker is their biggest advantage, and it is important as they will shut down the already non-existent run and force the Giants to pass into a perfectly capable 49ers secondary.  For the Giants it could be argued they have an advantage on the defensive line featuring pro bowl defensive ends Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck, and Osi Umenyiora as well as Mathias Kiwanuka as a down lineman on passing plays.  They have great depth at the position, but the 49ers also have their own 2 terrific pass rushers in Justin and Aldon Smith.  I haven’t been this afraid for Manning’s life in a long time.  The Giants are able to rush four and drop 7 on most plays, but that won’t be the case against the balanced run-pass attack the 49ers use.  It will be important to get out to an early lead, and let the Giants play to their strengths. The 49ers can do whatever they want on defense, the Giants won’t be able to run very effectively barring a miracle, so it doesn’t much matter.

After all this “analysis,” I think the Giants sneak out a close one, likely on the second to last drive followed by a defensive hold on the 49ers final possession to end the game. Big Blue have the offensive firepower to go TD for TD against the 49ers and the defense, while capable of giving up big, headscratching plays, also can get after the quarterback better than at any point this season.  We’ll see how it all turns out on gameday though, the NFL is kind of hard to predict.

Matt Brickell is an unabashed Giants fan. He also is a senior writer, but that’s less important this week.